Nifty closed at 5204 for the week which is near by 200 DMA.
Nifty comes to the crucial resistance so from here if it closes above 5250 then it can go to 5400.
In the other side if its not able to go above 5220 the it can come to 5060 and to 4860.
As there are 5 gaps in this rise it has to be closed before making further strength up move.
Dear Mr. Athi,
ReplyDeleteThanks for regular updates.
1. There are 4 upside gaps in the current rise in the market and NOT 5, as mentioned in your write-up.
2. Is it necessary that these gaps need to be filled for further rise? I can see March-April 2009 gaps still not filled and market nearly made it to all time high.
Kindly let me know your views.
Thanks in advance.
With Regards,
Thanks for writing to me and thanks for notifying my mistake.
Delete1 . I accept my mistake there are only 4 gaps.
(a. 4645-4675
b.4758-4768
c.4880-4905
d.4980-4991)
2. Its not necessary to fill the gap but probabilities are there to fill the gap.
And if the building has to be strong the basement has to be strong or else the entire building will collapse.
Nifty made near to the all time high 6357 was the high and now 6338 was the high it didn't reached or crossed it also may be because of that reason.
Hi Athi,
DeleteThanks for your prompt reply.
You are right. When it comes to building, the basement has to be strong. But, the same logic,
I'm afraid, may not work in the "current state" of world markets, where the easy money (@ 0%-1%)
is getting flooded.
I have 20 years of SENSEX data and in only one instance there is gap on monthly chart (11492-11621;
April 2009-May 2009, election gap), which is STILL NOT FILLED. Hopes of that getting filled also willdiminish as years pass by, as fundamental valuations don't justfy lower levels.
Hence, relying on these gaps will keep us out of the markets for long time :)
Thanks man. You are doing wonderful job. Yours is one of "very few" blogs I visit "religiously" on a daily basis, for an unbiased view on the market.
Thanks a ton for that.
With Regards,